S-REIT Stress Test
First-order sensitivity model: how would Singapore REIT distributions react to a rate hike and an occupancy drop? Not a forecast — a what-if calculator that uses sector-typical assumptions.
Rate shock
+50 bps
Occupancy shock
-5 pp
REITs modelled
25
Ranked by modelled DPU impact
Most impacted first (largest negative delta to top).
| Ticker | Name | Current yield | Modelled DPU Δ | Safety (was → now) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRPU.SI | Sasseur REIT | 9.23% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| A7RU.SI | ARA Hospitality Trust | 7.73% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| M1GU.SI | Sabana Industrial REIT | 7.63% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| A17U.SI | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 7.59% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| UD1U.SI | IREIT Global | 7.23% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| C38U.SI | CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust | 6.85% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| HMN.SI | CapitaLand Ascott Trust | 6.82% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| P40U.SI | Starhill Global REIT | 6.73% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| ME8U.SI | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 6.55% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| Q5T.SI | Cromwell European REIT | 6.49% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| O5RU.SI | AIMS APAC REIT | 6.31% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| TS0U.SI | OUE REIT | 6.28% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| N2IU.SI | Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust | 6.28% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| J85.SI | CDL Hospitality Trusts | 6.19% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| M44U.SI | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 6.15% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| K71U.SI | Keppel REIT | 6.14% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| BUOU.SI | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust | 5.99% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| T82U.SI | Suntec REIT | 5.34% | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| AJBU.SI | Keppel DC REIT | 4.52% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| OXMU.SI | Manulife US REIT | 4.48% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| C2PU.SI | Parkway Life REIT | 4.46% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International | 4.08% | -4.34% | 25 → 21 |
| Q1P.SI | Lendlease Global Commercial REIT | — | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| RW0U.SI | Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust | — | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
| J91U.SI | ESR-LOGOS REIT | — | -4.34% | 0 → 0 |
How the math works
We project the first-order impact of two shocks on each REIT's distributable funds. Both assumptions are deliberately simple — the point isn't precision, it's relative ranking.
- Rate shock: assumes 35% gearing (sector typical) and 50% unhedged debt. Each 100 bps applied to that unhedged share hits FFO 1:1.
- Occupancy shock: revenue scales 1:1 with occupancy; FFO scales 0.85× (gross-margin pass-through proxy).
- Safety score drift: a 1% FFO hit roughly translates to a 1-point safety score change. Capped at 0–100.
Limitations: we don't have per-REIT hedge ratios or debt maturity ladders yet, so the “50% unhedged” assumption is a placeholder. Once our refinancing data scraper is online, this will use real per-REIT debt profiles.